goodcall's WC Picks

goodcall · Jun 17, 2006

based on the same system as the mlb picks seen in the baseball forum

all picks based on the three-way moneylines (TeamA win, draw, TeamB win)

lines are the ones currently up at Pinnacle

YTD: 0-0, +$0

Picks:
6/20 Ecuador/Germany: DRAW +325
6/20 Costa Rica/Poland: DRAW +270
6/20 Paraguay/Trinidad and Tobago: DRAW +273
6/21 Portugal/Mexico: PORTUGAL +162

goodcall · Jun 19, 2006

After two games each, the system ranks the 32 teams as follows:

ESP 1
BRA 2
ARG 3
ENG 4
ECU 5
POR 6
NED 7
GER 8
KOR 9
MEX 10
AUS 11
ITA 12
SUI 13
FRA 14
SWE 15
GHA 16
CZE 17
TUN 18
TRI 19
UKR 20
ANG 21
USA 22
CIV 23
POL 24
CRO 25
CRC 26
JPN 27
PAR 28
IRN 29
KSA 30
TOG 31
SCG 32

goodcall · Jun 19, 2006

And the predicted outcomes of the 16 remaining games of the first round:

ECU/GER, DRAW
CRC/POL, DRAW
SWE/ENG, ENG
PAR/TRI, DRAW
NED/ARG, ARG
CIV/SCG, CIV
POR/MEX, POR
IRN/ANG, ANG
CZE/ITA, ITA
GHA/USA, GHA
JPN/BRA, BRA
CRO/AUS, AUS
TOG/FRA, FRA
SUI/KOR, DRAW
KSA/ESP, ESP
UKR/TUN, UKR

All wins are expected to be by 1 goal, except:
FRA by 2
BRA by 5
ESP by 8

Mindware · Jun 19, 2006

goodcall said:
All wins are expected to be by 1 goal, except:
FRA by 2
BRA by 5
ESP by 8

seems like your system needs some tweaking. No way brazil wins by 5 and Esp wins by 8:monsters- GL though

goodcall · Jun 19, 2006

haha yeah I agree...just tryin it out.

goodcall · Jun 20, 2006

Today: 0-3, -$300

YTD: 0-3, -$300

goodcall · Jun 20, 2006

Picks:
6/22 Australia/Croatia: AUSTRALIA +214
6/23 Switzerland/Korea: DRAW +223

Mindware · Jun 20, 2006

Like the Korea play. GL mate :103631605

goodcall · Jun 21, 2006

Today: 1-0, +$162

YTD: 1-3, -$138

goodcall · Jun 23, 2006

Today: 0-1, -$100
YTD: 1-4, -$238

goodcall · Jun 23, 2006

After group play, the system ranks the 32 teams as follows:

1 BRA
2 ESP
3 ARG
4 GER
5 ENG
6 POR
7 NED
8 SUI
9 ECU
10 GHA
11 SWE
12 ITA
13 FRA
14 MEX
15 KOR
16 UKR
17 AUS
18 TUN
19 ANG
20 USA
21 CZE
22 POL
23 PAR
24 CIV
25 CRO
26 IRN
27 TRI
28 JPN
29 KSA
30 TOG
31 CRC
32 SCG

goodcall · Jun 23, 2006

So, your top 4:

1. Brazil
2. Argentina
3. England
4. Switzerland

And the expected outcomes of the Round of 16:

Germany/Sweden: Germany
Argentina/Mexico: Argentina
Italy/Australia: Italy
Switzerland/Ukraine: Switzerland (ET)
England/Ecuador: England
Portugal/Netherlands: Netherlands (ET)
Brazil/Ghana: Brazil (ET)
Spain/France: Spain (ET)

goodcall · Jun 27, 2006

Alright, here's your next update...before the quarterfinals, here's how the 32 rank based on the games played thus far (teams remaining are bolded):

1 BRA
2 GER
3 POR
4 ENG
5 ARG
6 SUI
7 NED
8 ESP
9 FRA
10 SWE
11 GHA
12 ITA
13 UKR
14 ECU
15 MEX
16 KOR
17 AUS
18 TUN
19 ANG
20 USA
21 CZE
22 POL
23 PAR
24 CIV
25 CRO
26 IRN
27 TRI
28 JPN
29 KSA
30 TOG
31 CRC
32 SCG

And the expected results of the quarterfinals:

Germany 3:0 Argentina
Ukraine 1:0(aet) Italy
Portugal 1:0 England
Brazil 1:0 France

And here's something I made for the NCAA basketball tournament, but it can be used here as well. Here are the percent chances each team will advance to the semis and finals, and to win it all (sorry I can't get the formatting right):

Germany 54.51% 32.08% 16.54%
Argentina 45.49% 24.75% 11.65%
Italy 50.30% 21.79% 9.34%
Ukraine 49.70% 21.38% 9.10%
England 48.13% 22.73% 11.64%
Portugal 51.87% 25.45% 13.51%
Brazil 60.33% 33.76% 19.61%
France 39.67% 18.06% 8.62%

goodcall · Jul 1, 2006

1 BRA
2 GER
3 POR
4 ENG
5 FRA
6 ARG
7 ITA
8 SUI
9 NED
10 ESP
11 SWE
12 GHA
13 ECU
14 UKR
15 MEX
16 KOR
17 AUS
18 TUN
19 ANG
20 USA
21 CZE
22 POL
23 PAR
24 CIV
25 CRO
26 IRN
27 TRI
28 JPN
29 KSA
30 TOG
31 CRC
32 SCG

Italy 1:0 Germany
France 1:0 Portugal

Germany and Portugal have been the better two teams over the course of the tournament, but right now France and Italy are hotter.

Germany 54.94% 28.29%
Italy 45.06% 20.97%
Portugal 51.47% 26.48%
France 48.53% 24.26%

goodcall · Jul 3, 2006

Germany and Italy are both in the top 4 in goals scored this world cup - Germany tied for first (with Argentina) at 11 and Italy at 9 (Brazil has 10), each in 5 games. Put those together and average and we have an expected 4-goal game. The over 2.5 is approaching +200, due largely to all the unders so far in elimination play.

Why shouldn't I take the over???

Romanowski · Jul 3, 2006

Why wouldnt you also looks at goals conceded by the remaing teams?

Rackingup 4 on Costa Rica and 3 on Ukraine does little for your theory.

In fact one of the common themes of the reaming teams is solid defense

In short FWIW I will be on both unders

goodcall · Jul 7, 2006

system says POR in OT and France in reg.

top 10:
1 BRA
2 FRA
3 GER
4 POR
5 ENG
6 ARG
7 ITA
8 SUI
9 NED
10 ESP

Thoughts on the O/U for GER/POL? Will this game be played more "freely", allowing for more goals, since a championship is no longer on the line?

charleslanger · Jul 8, 2006

goodcall said:
system says POR in OT and France in reg.

top 10:
1 BRA
2 FRA
3 GER
4 POR
5 ENG
6 ARG
7 ITA
8 SUI
9 NED
10 ESP

Thoughts on the O/U for GER/POL? Will this game be played more "freely", allowing for more goals, since a championship is no longer on the line?

see chriscol's analysis: http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=382408&page=4

goodcall · Jul 9, 2006

Final Ratings after World Cup 2006 - Congratulations to Italy!

1 BRA 102.54
2 FRA 99.94
3 GER 97.51
4 ITA 87.82
5 POR 86.88
6 ENG 85.68
7 ARG 82.83
8 SUI 75.34
9 NED 74.62
10 ESP 73.96
11 SWE 65.18
12 GHA 64.91
13 ECU 61.30
14 UKR 58.98
15 MEX 58.63
16 KOR 56.71
17 AUS 45.59
18 TUN 41.86
19 ANG 38.10
20 USA 36.12
21 CZE 35.04
22 POL 31.54
23 PAR 30.74
24 CIV 29.69
25 CRO 26.38
26 IRN 25.11
27 TRI 23.86
28 JPN 23.43
29 KSA 16.36
30 TOG 12.23
31 CRC 12.23
32 SCG 4.93